Don't let the seeds go to waste

We've been doing this for the last two years now. Every time we eat some fruits we preserve the seeds instead of putting them in the waste basket. We wash and dry the seeds and store them in a dry container. Around the time that the rainy season begins, we go out to the open fields and hills and disperse them as widely as we can.

Not all the seeds we disperse would grow onto becoming fruit bearing trees. And we may not be around to enjoy the fruits. Regardless, we think the idea is a good one. Because it enriches the ecosystem, providing for diversity of the biomass in the short term and for the food cycle over the longer term.

This year Pankaj came up with another good idea to add to this enterprise, to collect pods fallen off the trees alongside the roads which would otherwise be destroyed and dispersing them in open spaces.

We expanded the idea further recently to include seed of fruits, vegetables and different kinds of grass.

Quality and productivity revolution in agriculture

Over much of the last five decades the world's attention has shifted from it's obsession with volumes in manufacturing towards quality and productivity. And though there has been some movement towards discovering and delivering greater quality of services especially in the west, in general there has been a proliferation of different kinds of services accessible to an ever larger set of people with ever falling standards of service quality (at least that's the experience we have here in India).

But unlike services the consumption of which is discretionary, the obsession with volume in agriculture is leading us towards very serious crisis the world over. Agriculture must move NOW towards productivity and quality (away from the stupid obsession with volumes).

An estimated Rs 56,000 crores worth of agricultural produce is being lost to waste due to improper storage and transportation. Add to this the depletion of assets such as wells (dues to falling water tables) resulting from overuse of ground water. Add to this the waste (not subsidy) at the fertilizer plants (and in the subsequent distribution chain). Add to this the loss from depletion of soil nutrients. Add to this the waste (and corruption) in building irrigation projects. The list goes on and on.

There is an urgent need to apply principles of good management to agriculture. Price discovery, value addition, market access, efficiency, efficacy, asset creation, sustainability, yield, value and so on. This is the direction agriculture WILL have to take.

The question is who will be the pioneers in applying these principles to agriculture? What will be 'that' which triggers this change?

There are three possible ways in which this change could happen-

1. Government policies on agriculture and related sectors driven by public opinion

2. Engagement of the retail and food businesses with the farms driven by consumer preferences

3. Community driven initiatives driven by wider awareness

Running out of productive capacity

The unprecedented use of capital and financial innovation, maybe an indicator of the fact that the capacity of the current economic structure to produce growth has almost run out.

Let's say you have a certain capacity to run. Utilising that capacity at the lower levels is easy. As you move towards the higher end of utilising that capacity, the effort (mental determination) required is greater and greater. But beyond the limit of that capacity no amount of effort (mental determination) can do it.

Towards the fag end of the capacity of an economic structure, we see an unprecedented use of capital (and financial innovation) to drive growth. And then comes the collapse, where no amount of financial innovation can drive the growth anymore because the productive capacity of the economic structure have been exhausted.

I think the current economic structure will have to undergo restructuring to Build new and additional productive capacity. Much like the runner who failed to reach his objective, must go back and work at building a new level of capacity.

How much growth the next cycle will produce, would depend on how deep this restructuring is.

Hazaroon Khwahishein Aisi...

For years I have met and heard of countless NGOs and Voluntary groups that have done excellent work for a while and then disappeared or been confined to limited geography or both. For years I have watched many a well intentioned people work hard and achieve little. For years I have watched people intending to do good never get started. For years I have seen people overwhelmed with compassion lurch into action, only to give it all up in frustration (in equal haste).

In the few smallish initiatives that I have engaged myself with, I have seen how much time it can take to do the many insignificant things that need to be done in order to get some small amount of significant things done. I don't mean to demean the small contributions one can make. I only yearn for a better way to make a bigger impact without killing oneself with overwork and frustration.

The oft stated reason for slow progress and limited impact of voluntary initiatives - lack of funds, is not a problem that is likely to go away any time soon (probably never). Resorting to building a revenue model around the 'services / value' provided by these initiatives doesn't always provide the remedy.

But more importantly lack of funds is not the heart of the problem; the real reason could be the limited extent of the relationships these organisations have, the lack of a wider network that can be used to reach both the benefactors and the potential beneficiaries. Without it, even the benefit a revenue model can bring in remains unrealised.

So on an unlikely day it occurred to me- to create a network of voluntary individuals and groups that could all draw upon each others resources to make a bigger better faster impact. Because while building large organisations can take (and use up) a lot of resources (funds) creating larger networks can be done at much lower costs using the internet. It is a way in which voluntary organisations can grow the extent of their relationships. It is a way in which individuals can make small (human sized) contributions which can be aggregated with the contributions of other individuals to make a bigger (giant) impact.

The idea is simple. A website that carries a directory of volunteers, donors, voluntary organisations, causes, projects etc. becomes the exchange for collaboration amongst the groups and individuals, enabling them to undertake projects that can deliver a bigger better faster impacts.

This initiative can help create a market place (for lack of a better word) where donors, volunteers, organization and all can come together to exchange what they can offer to a cause. It can be a place where organisations connect with other complementary organisations to help take their work further faster. And so on.

It won't be the first time that internet would be used for such a purpose. And I am sure this won't be the first or the only such project. Does it matter? No. Because all such efforts can again be aggregated in a network of networks over the internet to deliver even bigger benefits.

This project is large in scope and big in potential. I take strength from the belief that I can count on your support. It really is Our project for Our times.

Let's begin.

Don't just focus on quantitative measures

The 11th Plan targets a capacity generation of 78,700 Mw, The12th Plan (starting 2012) projects a capacity addition of 100,000Mw.

And while, the government does talk about a power generation Strategy that focuses on low-cost generation, optimisation of capacity utilisation, controlling input cost, optimising of fuel mix, technology upgradation and utilisation of non-conventional energy sources etc. there seem to be no metrics to measure the performances on these parameters.

With amount of capacity generation being the only measureable, all the focus will remain on quantitative measures and not the qualitative ones.

Also there seems to be no metrics for generation efficiency, transmission efficiency, usage /utilisation efficiency etc. These measures should supercede the quantum of capacity generation to ensure greater sustainability.

Durable solution to the problem of inflation

Prices rise when the supply is being outstripped by demand. Or when there is an expectation of a supply constraint in comparison to the impending demand. Or when there is an oversupply of money...

The 'theory' concocted by the government that the current bout of inflation is an 'imported’ one, due to high oil and commodity import prices is a bogus one. The government has been pumping the economy with liquidity in the form of various dole outs to different constituencies in the form of Rural Employment Guarantee, Urban Renewal, Loan Waivers, Pay Revisions, Purchase of Dollars (to suppress the Rupee for the benefit of exporters), Infrastructure Spending etc.; while the society has drifted towards unbridled consumption patterns.

Inflation today is largely because of high labor cost (with low capability) and poor improvement in productivity (in all sectors of the economy). The government has done precious little to improve these supply side constraints. Education has been a fiefdom of the politicians for far too long. Reforms necessary to blast productivity bottlenecks have been stalled for years.

The only durable answer is to consume less and to become more productive (i.e. produce the right things with the least amount of waste).

Financial Innovations are Not Enough

Risk capital in all forms(from joint stock companies to venture capital) have made it possible for people to undertake much bigger enterprises. (Though whether it is all good certainly can be questioned). Surely a lot of innovation and productivity improvement has been fueled by financial instruments. Surely money is a lubricant for the economic activities. No question.

The debate is about what money instruments are applied for. Money employed for productivity improvements versus money employed to fuel (support) consumption. One creates wealth the other creates poverty.

Now one can argue that there are secondary benefits to consumption leading to innovation and all that. But the question is, where is capital best deployed? Shouldn't it have been e.g. deployed into developing alternative energy, into developing cheaper and more sustainable homes, into improving agricultural productivity and so on? Wouldn't that be a better surer way to tackling poverty (and spreading prosperity)? Wouldn't that mean real creation of wealth?

Financial systems are a necessary but not sufficient condition for economic progress. In the absence of productivity improvement and innovation, financial innovation will end up in inflation and worse.

And unless there is a change in the physical reality through productivity improvement and innovation, money market innovations will ultimately prove ineffectual.

Growing Green Wealth

I think green businesses are the big opportunity for the next 25 years.

Today to be green is expensive. But over the next 10-25 years as commodities and natural material, resource become scares, it will be cheaper to be green. Leading to a large scale adoption of greener products and services.

Increasing government regulations, public opinion, consumer behavior, and competitive pressure will all lead to an accelerated development and adoption of greener products and services.

Companies with special green technologies will do better. Surely, greener companies are likely to do better from a profitability and sustainability point of view.

A lot of money has been made on scarcity of natural resources. There was a time when people who could mine and trade in natural resources made a lot of money. Then they profited from scarcity of these resource (in comparison to the demand) with inflated prices. People have (and continue to make) a lot of money on scarcity of a natural resources (such as land, oil, metals..).

Perhaps their profits will continue to swell for a while. But the resultant inflation on the consumer end will drive consumers towards green technologies. That's where we're likely to find the - 5X-10X-20X growth in profits and asset values. It's still benefiting from the scarcity of resources but the shift is towards efficient use (so it is a not-so-Demonic way to make money). Already greener car companies like Toyota that make efficient use of resource are more profitable.

I think there could be an opportunity to make a lot of money and because of it and besides it, a lot of good can be done on the way.

We are most certainly positioning my own company for this kind of scenario.

'Greater Common Good' the New Economic Driver

Investment in the infrastucture - not private (as in homes) but public(shared) infrastucture - like education, health, power, connectivity, travel & transportation, public utilities (water, garbage recycling, playground, parks, spiritual destinations...) are likely to become the prime drivers for the economy in the foreseeable future.

We are likely to move towards a new model of economic growth - one that is driven by spreading the access to better quality of life for more people, replacing an economic model that has persisted through the last three decades in which higher levels of consumption and convenience per person were the dominant themes.

Not so much by collective resolve

We are an entrepreneurial economy, not driven so much by collective resolve and discipline as by the will and geniuses of individuals.